Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Tropical Storm LESTER Wind Speed Probabilities


Home   Public Adv   Fcst Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  

ZCZC MIAPWSEP3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  

TROPICAL STORM LESTER WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   6           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP132016               
0300 UTC FRI AUG 26 2016                                            

AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LESTER WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 17.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ISLA CLARION   34 17  28(45)   2(47)   1(48)   X(48)   X(48)   X(48)
ISLA CLARION   50  X   9( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
ISLA CLARION   64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

15N 115W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

20N 115W       34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

15N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   6(15)   X(15)   X(15)

20N 120W       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  24(29)  12(41)   X(41)   X(41)
20N 120W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)   X(10)   X(10)
20N 120W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

15N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   6(15)   X(15)
15N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)

20N 125W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  37(38)  17(55)   1(56)
20N 125W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)  12(22)   1(23)
20N 125W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   6(10)   X(10)

15N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   7(18)
15N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

20N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  33(34)  11(45)
20N 130W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   6(17)
20N 130W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   2( 6)

25N 130W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

15N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)
15N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
15N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)

20N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)  20(24)
20N 135W       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)
20N 135W       64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)

25N 135W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)

20N 140W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER AVILA                                                    
NNNN