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Tropical Storm ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities


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000
FONT15 KNHC 290851
PWSAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  18            
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052015               
0900 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015                                            

AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA WAS LOCATED NEAR        
LATITUDE 19.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)

MAYPORT NS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)   2(11)

ORLANDO FL     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   2(13)

COCOA BEACH FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   2(11)

PATRICK AFB    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   3(10)   1(11)

FT PIERCE FL   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)

W PALM BEACH   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   1( 9)   1(10)

MIAMI FL       34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   1(12)

MARATHON FL    34  X   2( 2)  15(17)   5(22)   2(24)   1(25)   X(25)

KEY WEST FL    34  X   1( 1)  20(21)   9(30)   2(32)   1(33)   X(33)
KEY WEST FL    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

MARCO ISLAND   34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  12(18)   4(22)   2(24)   1(25)
MARCO ISLAND   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

FT MYERS FL    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  12(14)   6(20)   3(23)   X(23)
FT MYERS FL    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

VENICE FL      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  10(12)   9(21)   3(24)   1(25)
VENICE FL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

TAMPA FL       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  11(16)   3(19)   2(21)
TAMPA FL       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   7(17)   2(19)
CEDAR KEY FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   3(15)

ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   8(14)   3(17)

APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   8(16)   4(20)
APALACHICOLA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   9(19)   4(23)
GFMX 290N 850W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   9(14)   4(18)
PANAMA CITY FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)

MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)

PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)   3(12)

GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   7(12)   4(16)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   3( 9)

GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)

STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)

BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)

GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)

JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)

GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)

GRAND BAHAMA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)

NEW PROVIDENCE 34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ANDROS         34  X   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

CP SAN ANTONIO 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

HAVANA         34  X   1( 1)  12(13)   5(18)   1(19)   X(19)   1(20)
HAVANA         50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

ISLE OF PINES  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

CIENFUEGOS     34  X  17(17)  10(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
CIENFUEGOS     50  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

CAMAGUEY       34  7  31(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)

GUANTANAMO BAY 34 43   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)   X(43)

LES CAYES      34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BRENNAN                                                  


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Page last modified: Saturday, 29-Aug-2015 08:51:59 UTC