Tropical Depression MELISSA Wind Speed Probabilities

000
FONT14 KNHC 302039
PWSAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  10     
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL142007               
2100 UTC SUN SEP 30 2007                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION MELISSA WAS LOCATED NEAR 
LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 34.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.                              

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   


...THERE ARE NO LOCATIONS WITH TOTAL ACCUMLATED 5 DAY PROBABILITIES
                  GREATER THAN 2 PERCENT...


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   

 12 167N  359W 34  5   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 12 167N  359W 50  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 12 167N  359W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)

 24 177N  383W 34  X   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 24 177N  383W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 24 177N  383W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)

 36 189N  407W 34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 36 189N  407W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 36 189N  407W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)

 48 205N  428W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 48 205N  428W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 48 205N  428W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)

               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     25     20      20      20       0       0       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)


$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN