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Tropical Storm BONNIE Wind Speed Probabilities


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000
FONT12 KNHC 282031
PWSAT2

TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016               
2100 UTC SAT MAY 28 2016                                            

AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 31.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 79.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE         
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                                  


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)

PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)

ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)

BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)

ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)

CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)

OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)

PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   2( 8)

WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)

CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)

RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   2( 9)

DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   4( 6)   2( 8)   2(10)

NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   5(10)   2(12)

NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   4( 5)   6(11)   2(13)

OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   2(13)

ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   6( 8)   5(13)   2(15)

GREENSBORO NC  34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)

RALEIGH NC     34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   2(13)

ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)   4(13)   2(15)

CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)  10(13)   5(18)   2(20)
CAPE HATTERAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   7(15)   2(17)   2(19)
FAYETTEVILLE   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)

CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)

CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)   4(21)   2(23)
CHERRY PT NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)

NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  12(17)   5(22)   1(23)
NEW RIVER NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)

MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)  13(18)   4(22)   1(23)
MOREHEAD CITY  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

SURF CITY NC   34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   6( 9)  13(22)   4(26)   1(27)
SURF CITY NC   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
SURF CITY NC   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

WILMINGTON NC  34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   9(12)  12(24)   4(28)   X(28)
WILMINGTON NC  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
WILMINGTON NC  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

BALD HEAD ISL  34  X   1( 1)   4( 5)  11(16)  11(27)   3(30)   1(31)
BALD HEAD ISL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
BALD HEAD ISL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

FLORENCE SC    34  X   4( 4)  10(14)   8(22)   5(27)   1(28)   X(28)
FLORENCE SC    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)

COLUMBIA SC    34  X  10(10)   8(18)   6(24)   2(26)   1(27)   X(27)
COLUMBIA SC    50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)

LITTLE RIVER   34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)  14(22)   8(30)   3(33)   X(33)
LITTLE RIVER   50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
LITTLE RIVER   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   2( 2)  10(12)  13(25)   8(33)   1(34)   1(35)
MYRTLE BEACH   50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
MYRTLE BEACH   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

GEORGETOWN SC  34  1   7( 8)  12(20)  10(30)   5(35)   1(36)   1(37)
GEORGETOWN SC  50  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)

CHARLESTON SC  34 10  21(31)   8(39)   3(42)   2(44)   X(44)   1(45)
CHARLESTON SC  50  X   5( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)

BEAUFORT MCAS  34 27  27(54)   4(58)   1(59)   1(60)   1(61)   X(61)
BEAUFORT MCAS  50  2   4( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
BEAUFORT MCAS  64  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)

ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

AUGUSTA GA     34  X   8( 8)   4(12)   3(15)   2(17)   X(17)   1(18)

SAVANNAH GA    34 13  18(31)   4(35)   2(37)   1(38)   1(39)   X(39)
SAVANNAH GA    50  1   3( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

KINGS BAY GA   34  1   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)

WAYCROSS GA    34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)

MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)

JACKSONVILLE   34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   1( 5)

GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

DAYTONA BEACH  34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER STEWART