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Hurricane IDA Wind Speed Probabilities
000
FONT11 KNHC 090834
PWSAT1
HURRICANE IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0900 UTC MON NOV 09 2009
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.1
NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS
...90 MPH...150 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 3 11 NA NA NA
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 17 31 NA NA NA
TROPICAL STORM 11 42 54 40 NA NA NA
HURRICANE 89 56 26 18 NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 74 46 20 13 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 2 12 8 4 4 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 3 2 3 2 1 NA NA NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75KT 70KT 45KT 35KT NA NA NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ATLANTA GA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
ORLANDO FL 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 1 X( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
TAMPA FL 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 5(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 1 6( 7) 5(12) 7(19) X(19) X(19) X(19)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 2 13(15) 15(30) 12(42) X(42) X(42) X(42)
TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ST MARKS FL 34 3 12(15) 12(27) 12(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
APALACHICOLA 34 6 28(34) 11(45) 6(51) X(51) X(51) X(51)
APALACHICOLA 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12)
APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 9 23(32) 8(40) 4(44) X(44) X(44) X(44)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 6 46(52) 12(64) 3(67) X(67) X(67) X(67)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X 5( 5) 8(13) 5(18) X(18) X(18) X(18)
PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X 8( 8) 12(20) 9(29) X(29) X(29) X(29)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 1 15(16) 18(34) 7(41) X(41) X(41) X(41)
MONTGOMERY AL 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
PENSACOLA FL 34 5 72(77) 10(87) 3(90) X(90) X(90) X(90)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X 19(19) 17(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39)
PENSACOLA FL 64 X 3( 3) 8(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 56 38(94) 1(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 2 38(40) 4(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X 12(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15)
MOBILE AL 34 4 53(57) 13(70) 3(73) X(73) X(73) X(73)
MOBILE AL 50 X 9( 9) 9(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20)
MOBILE AL 64 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GULFPORT MS 34 4 37(41) 8(49) 4(53) X(53) X(53) X(53)
GULFPORT MS 50 X 5( 5) 4( 9) 2(11) X(11) X(11) X(11)
GULFPORT MS 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BURAS LA 34 7 29(36) 5(41) 2(43) X(43) X(43) X(43)
BURAS LA 50 X 6( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8)
BURAS LA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 70 11(81) 1(82) 1(83) X(83) X(83) X(83)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 9 15(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 1 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
JACKSON MS 34 X 5( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 3 11(14) 4(18) 3(21) X(21) X(21) X(21)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 3 4( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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