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Tropical Depression IDA Wind Speed Probabilities
000
FONT11 KNHC 060831
PWSAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
0900 UTC FRI NOV 06 2009
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION IDA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 14.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 10 15 16 16 19 24 31
TROP DEPRESSION 76 48 34 25 19 18 21
TROPICAL STORM 13 35 47 49 48 43 35
HURRICANE 1 2 4 9 14 15 13
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 1 3 8 11 12 11
HUR CAT 2 X X 1 1 3 2 1
HUR CAT 3 X X X X 1 1 1
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 25KT 30KT 35KT 40KT 45KT 45KT 45KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5)
MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7)
KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 5( 8)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 4(11)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 4(12)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 4( 9)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) 2(10)
COZUMEL MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 13(19) 5(24) 2(26)
COZUMEL MX 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) 1( 6)
COZUMEL MX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
BELIZE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8)
PUERTO BARRIOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
GUANAJA 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14)
GUANAJA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PUERTO CABEZAS 34 1 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 16(20) 5(25) 2(27)
CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) 1(10)
ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 6(10) 3(13) X(13)
ISLE OF PINES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3)
CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7)
GRAND CAYMAN 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/BRENNAN
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