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Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion

AXPZ20 KNHC 191602

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1324 UTC Sun Feb 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.


The ITCZ extends from 07N87W to 04N95W to 07N104W. It resumes 
from 09N118W to 02N133W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate 
convection is occurring from 04N to 06N between 93W and 96W.



The cold front that was moving southward near Cabo San Lucas and
the Revillagigedo Islands has dissipated. High pressure centered
near 25N134W continues building eastward. Fresh to strong winds 
that were over the offshore waters along the coast of Baja 
California Norte and the northern portion of Baja California Sur 
have subsided to moderate to fresh as the high begins to weaken 
in response to an approaching cold front NW of the discussion 
area. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the offshore waters 
off the southern portion of Baja California Sur. Light to gentle 
winds are noted elsewhere. Large NW swells continue arriving in 
the coastal and offshore waters of the entire Baja California 
peninsula. Seas as high as 17 ft continue to lurk in the waters 
west of Baja California Norte. These swell are maintaining 
dangerous conditions across these waters. Please see statements 
from your local meteorological agency on this high impact swell 
event. Winds and seas have begun to decrease and will continue 
decreasing over this area during the next couple of days as the 
high to the west. By late Monday night, seas will subside to 6-8 
ft. A fresh set of NW swell will once again propagate into the 
waters off Baja California Norte. Seas will rebuild to near 10 ft
in zone PMZ011 by Wednesday afternoon.

High pressure will build SE over eastern Mexico behind a surface
trough moving east across the western Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday,
helping produce the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. 
This event will be brief as winds peak near gale force late 
Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. Winds will diminish 
below advisory levels on Wednesday evening as high pressure over 
Mexico weakens.


Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse to moderate to locally fresh 
during the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Winds will then
diminish midweek.

Gulf of Panama: North winds will pulse to moderate to fresh 
speeds during the overnight hours through Monday night. Winds 
will then diminish afterwards.

Otherwise, winds will be light to gentle.


A 1020 mb high is centered over the northern waters near 
25N134W. The main threat across the area continues to be large 
NW swell that were generated to the N of the cold front that 
recently dissipated over the waters near southern Baja. Sea
heights remain in excess of 12 ft over much of the area north of
12N and west of 110W. The swell will continue to propagate 
SE while continuing to subside during the next few days. Seas 
greater than 8 ft will spread as far south as 04N and as far east
as 100W by Tuesday afternoon. Another cold front will push into 
the far NW waters this afternoon. Southwest winds ahead of the 
approaching cold front have already become strong over the far NW
waters. Strong SW winds ahead of the front and N of 28N can be
expected to continue until around midday on Monday. Strong to 
near gale winds will persist west of the front today through 
Monday afternoon before tapering off. This front will
reintroduce a fresh set of large NW swell into the forecast 
waters. Seas will peak near 19 ft over the far NW waters on 
Monday morning. Seas will slowly subside as the swell propagate
southeastward. Seas 8 ft or greater will cover much of the 
forecast waters north of 05N and west of 115W by midday Tuesday. 
Areal coverage of 8 ft seas will decrease Tuesday night through
Friday and leave only a residual area of 8 ft seas over the far
NW waters N of 15N and W of 135W.