Tropical Depression MARTY Forecast Discussion

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 192043
TCDEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MARTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP162009
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 19 2009

MARTY HAS BEEN VOID OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SINCE AROUND 0500
UTC...AND THEREFORE IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. MARTY STILL HAS
A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR A
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND MAY PRODUCE INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF CONVECTION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT...AND A SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED THROUGH DISSIPATION. 

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/10. AS MARTY MOVES TO THE SOUTH
OF THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...A TURN TOWARD THE
WEST AND EVENTUALLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE LOW
DISSIPATES. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND THE TVCN MODEL CONSENSUS. 

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON
MARTY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER 
AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      19/2100Z 22.9N 119.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 12HR VT     20/0600Z 23.1N 120.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     20/1800Z 23.2N 122.6W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     21/0600Z 23.1N 124.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     21/1800Z 22.8N 127.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     22/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN