Skip Navigation Links
NOAA NOAA United States Department of Commerce

Post-Tropical Cyclone NICOLE Forecast Discussion


Home   Public Adv   Discussion   Wind Probs   Graphics   Archive  


000
WTNT45 KNHC 180856
TCDAT5

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  57
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152016
500 AM AST TUE OCT 18 2016

Nicole is finally losing its tropical cyclone characteristics as it
merges with a frontal system over the cold waters of the North
Atlantic.  The circulation is becoming elongated with the remaining
deep convection in a band well to the east of the center.  The
initial intensity is reduced to 55 kt based on a combination of
satellite intensity estimates and earlier scatterometer data.
The post-tropical cyclone is expected to complete extratropical
transition in the next 12 hours, the it should continue as a
vigorous extratropical storm through 36 hours before it is absorbed
by another extratropical low.

The initial motion is 030/27.  The cyclone should continue quickly
north-northeastward on the east side on a deep layer trough over
the Labrador Sea until the cyclone dissipates.

The main hazard associated with the post-tropical cyclone will
continue to be the large area of high seas.  Swells from the system
will affect much of the North Atlantic basin during the next couple
of days.

This is the last advisory on Nicole issued by the National
Hurricane Center.  Additional information on this system can be
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/0900Z 47.1N  39.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 12H  18/1800Z 51.7N  36.7W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 24H  19/0600Z 57.0N  35.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 36H  19/1800Z 62.0N  33.0W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 48H  20/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven