Hurricane NOEL Forecast Discussion

000
WTNT41 KNHC 022052
TCDAT1
HURRICANE NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
500 PM EDT FRI NOV 02 2007

NOEL IS MAKING THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE THIS
AFTERNOON.  AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE DATA AROUND 17Z SHOWED PEAK
FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 90 KT...THOUGH SFMR OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT
THE INTENSITY IS STILL NEAR 70 KT.  THE AIRCRAFT DATA ALSO
INDICATED THAT NOEL STILL DISPLAYED A WARM CORE AND A FAIRLY TIGHT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS.  SINCE THEN...THE INNER CORE CONVECTION
HAS SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED AND IS NOW INSUFFICIENT TO QUALIFY
NOEL AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  IN ADDITION...THE FSU CYCLONE PHASE
SPACE DIAGRAM SUGGESTS THAT NOEL'S THERMODYNAMIC STRUCTURE IS
BEGINNING TO BECOME ASYMMETRIC AND FRONTAL.  THUS THIS WILL BE THE
LAST NOEL ADVISORY.

CURRENT MOTION IS 040/17.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE
SMALL SPREAD...THOUGH THE 12Z SUITE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS WITH MORE WEIGHT ON THE LATTER.

BAROCLINIC FORCING SHOULD FURTHER INTENSIFY NOEL AS AN EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE AS IT ACCELERATES TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST.  ALL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS BOTH DEEPEN THE CYCLONE AND EXPAND THE HIGH WIND
AREAS.  THE INTENSITY AND SIZE FORECASTS ARE BASED UPON THE
CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      02/2100Z 31.4N  72.4W    70 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 34.5N  71.4W    70 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 39.4N  69.3W    75 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 44.7N  65.7W    80 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 50.6N  61.1W    65 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 72HR VT     05/1800Z 61.0N  52.0W    60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
 96HR VT     06/1800Z 68.0N  46.0W    30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT     07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/FRANKLIN