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Post-Tropical Cyclone Adrian Wind Speed Probabilities


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000
FOPZ11 KNHC 111432
PWSEP1

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   8    
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012017               
1500 UTC THU MAY 11 2017                                            

AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ADRIAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H.                               

Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     

WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 

CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               

PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      

PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 


  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   

               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE

FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   

10N 100W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   3( 5)

15N 100W       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)

P MALDONADO    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)

P ANGEL        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   2( 6)

HUATULCO       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)

15N 95W        34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)

$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH