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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Fernanda, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
1. Western East Pacific (EP99):
Satellite wind data indicate the circulation associated with an area
of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the
Hawaiian Islands is gradually becoming better defined. Although its
shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system.
A tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of
days as it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph over
the far western portion of the basin, and then crosses into the
Central Pacific basin late tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
2. Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the
next several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by
midweek while the system moves generally west-northwestward, roughly
parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
Public Advisories on Fernanda are issued under WMO header WTPZ32
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2.
Forecast/Advisories on Fernanda are issued under WMO header WTPZ22
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2.
Forecaster Reinhart