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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 11 2017
For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:
1. The remnants of Katia, located about 500 miles west-southwest of
Manzanillo, Mexico, are associated with a well-defined low pressure
center. Showers and thunderstorms with this system have become
better organized during the last day or so. Despite upper-level
winds appearing to be hostile for development over the next few
days, any additional improvement in the convective organization
could lead to the formation of a tropical cyclone while the system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
2. A trough of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form later this week while the system moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
3. Another area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred
miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula by the middle
of the week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive
for gradual development after that time while it moves slowly
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.