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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT TUE SEP 30 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel, located several hundred miles west
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. An elongated area of low pressure a few hundred miles south of the
southern coast of Mexico has shown little change in organization
during the past several hours.  Environmental conditions conditions
are favorable for a tropical depression to form tomorrow or Thursday
while the system moves toward the west-northwest or northwest near
10 mph. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance
will likely produce locally heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico that could cause flash flooding and mud slides.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Forecaster Beven




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