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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT THU SEP 11 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Odile, located about 200 miles south-southwest of Lazaro
Cardenas, Mexico.

1. A low pressure system located about 800 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has changed little in
organization during the past few hours. However, only a slight
increase in organization would lead to the development of a tropical
depression, and advisories could still be initiated overnight or on
Thursday while the low moves northward at about 5 mph. The low is
forecast to turn eastward by Friday and could be absorbed by Odile
over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized near a broad trough
of low pressure located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula. Some development of this
system is possible during the next few days while it moves
northward and then northeastward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

3. An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of
Guatemala and El Salvador by late in the weekend. Conditions appear
favorable for some development of this system by early next week
while it moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Beven




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