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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT FRI AUG 1 2014

Corrected to change 48-hour category to high for first disturbance

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Iselle, located more than a thousand miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 550 miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, are
gradually becoming better organized.  Environmental conditions are
conducive for development, and this system is likely to become a
tropical depression over the weekend as it moves westward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

2. Shower activity remains minimal in association with a weak low
pressure area located about 1200 miles east-southeast of the Big
Island of Hawaii.  Upper-level winds are not currently conducive
for development, but they could become a slightly more favorable in
a few days while the low moves generally westward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Kimberlain




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