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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT SUN JUL 27 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Hernan, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure area
located about 1500 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has increased somewhat but remains poorly
organized.  Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable for
significant development while the low moves westward at 5 to 10 mph
over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. An area of low pressure could form well south of southern Mexico
by later this week.  Some gradual development of this system is
possible after that time while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Pasch




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