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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 PM PDT THU JUL 24 2014

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Shower activity associated with a low pressure area located about
1700 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula has changed little in organization today.  However,
satellite data indicate winds of near tropical storm force north of
the center, and environmental conditions appear conducive for
development.  This system is expected to become a tropical
depression during the next day or two while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at about 10 mph. Upper-level winds are forecast
to limit the development chances by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

2. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms continues
well south of the coast of southeastern Mexico.  Upper-level winds
are expected to become more favorable for development of this system
over the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

3. An area of low pressure has formed about 1100 miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Some additional
development of this system is possible by the weekend while it moves
to the west or west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

4. Another area of low pressure could form well south of southeastern
Mexico by early next week.  Some gradual development of this system
is possible after that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 20 percent.

Forecaster Beven




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