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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Mon Nov 20 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Caribbean Sea (AL99):
Earlier satellite wind data indicated that a small but well-defined 
area of low pressure in the central Caribbean Sea was producing 
winds of 25-30 mph. However, the associated shower and thunderstorm 
activity with this system remains disorganized, and nearby dry air 
is forecast to prevent much additional development as the system 
begins to drift slowly westward over the next few days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is developing along a frontal boundary just 
to the southeast of Bermuda. This non-tropical low is forecast to 
move southeastward across the central subtropical Atlantic over 
warmer sea surface temperatures during the next few days, and 
environmental conditions appear conducive for this system to 
gradually acquire tropical characteristics. A subtropical or 
tropical storm could form by the latter part of this week, as the 
system continues moving eastward followed by a turn northeastward by 
the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Papin