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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. West-Central Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Satellite data indicate that the circulation associated with a low 
pressure area over the west-central Caribbean Sea remains broad, 
but the system is producing a large area of showers and 
thunderstorms mainly to the east of the center of circulation.  
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some additional 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the 
next day or two while the low moves northeastward toward Jamaica, 
Haiti, and eastern Cuba.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance 
aircraft is en route to investigate the system.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy 
rains which would likely result in flash flooding and mudslides over 
portions of the Greater Antilles, particularly over Jamaica and 
Hispaniola, through this weekend.  Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, 
Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the 
Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of 
this system. Tropical storm watches could be required for some of 
these areas as early as this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure located between southern 
Florida and the northwestern Bahamas is associated with a frontal 
boundary.  Development of this system into a tropical cyclone is 
not expected.  However, gusty winds and heavy rains are still 
possible across portions of the east coast of Florida and the 
Bahamas during the next day or so while the low moves northeastward 
over the southwestern Atlantic.  For more information on this 
system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by 
the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Berg