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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. West-Central Caribbean Sea (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low 
pressure located over the west-central Caribbean Sea have become a 
little better organized since yesterday.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for some additional development, and a tropical 
depression could form over the next day or two while the low moves 
northeastward toward Jamaica, Haiti, and eastern Cuba.  An Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate 
the system this afternoon.

Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy 
rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over 
portions of the Greater Antilles through this weekend.  Interests 
in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, the southeastern 
Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands should continue to monitor 
the progress of this system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure between southern Florida and 
the northwestern Bahamas is associated with a frontal boundary.  
Development of this system into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely. 
However, gusty winds and heavy rains are still possible across 
portions of the east coast of Florida and the Bahamas during the 
next day or so while the low moves quickly northeastward over the 
southwestern Atlantic.  For more information on this system, 
including storm warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Berg