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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Wed Nov 15 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL98):
A broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for 
development of this system over the next couple of days, and a 
tropical depression could form by this weekend as the system  
moves northeastward across the western and central part of the 
Caribbean Sea.  An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 
scheduled to investigate the system tomorrow. 

1. Regardless of development, this system is expected to produce heavy 
rains that could result in flash flooding and mudslides over 
portions of the Caribbean coast of Central America and the Greater 
Antilles through this weekend. Interests in Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, 
the Dominican Republic, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and 
Caicos Islands should continue to monitor the progress of this 
system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Offshore Southeast Coast of United States:
A non-tropical area of low pressure appears to be forming near 
southern Florida along a frontal boundary.  This system is forecast 
to move quickly northeastward across the Bahamas and offshore of the 
east coast of the U.S. through the weekend.  Although development 
into a tropical cyclone appears unlikely, this system is expected to 
produce gusty winds and heavy rains across portions of southern 
Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next couple of 
days.  For more information on this system, including gale warnings, 
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Cangialosi