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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Tue Oct 10 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest 
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of 
showers and thunderstorms. This activity has become a bit more 
concentrated while also showing signs of organization, and 
environmental conditions appear conducive for additional 
development. A tropical depression is likely to form during the next 
couple of days while the system moves west-northwestward or 
northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
* Formati
on chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms have not become any better organized this 
afternoon in association with an area of low pressure over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear only 
marginally favorable and this system has a short window to develop 
further over the next day or so. By Wednesday morning, the system is 
forecast to merge with a developing frontal boundary over the 
western Gulf of Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Reconnaissance aircraft 
is in route to investigate the system this afternoon and will 
provide more information about the system's structure.  

Regardless of tropical cyclone development, the system is forecast 
to produce gale-force winds over portions of the northern Gulf of 
Mexico by tomorrow, and potentially heavy rainfall along the Gulf 
Coast by the latter portion of this week. For more information, see 
products from your local National Weather Service office, and high 
seas forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin