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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 9 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL92):
A low-latitude tropical wave located several hundred miles south of 
the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of showers 
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
additional development of this system during the next several days. 
A tropical depression is likely to form around midweek while it 
moves west-northwestward or northwestward across the eastern 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a small area of 
low pressure over the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico about 100 
miles north of Coatzacoalcos, Mexico.  Environmental conditions 
appear marginally favorable for some additional development while 
the system moves slowly northward before the low merges with a 
frontal system over the western Gulf of Mexico by midweek.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Papin