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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Sep 21 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic.

1. Western Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the 
Florida peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected 
to form within this area by early Friday, and this system could 
acquire some subtropical characteristics on Friday or early Saturday 
while it moves generally northward toward the coast of North 
Carolina. Regardless of subtropical development, this low is likely 
to bring gusty winds to gale force, heavy rain, and high surf to 
portions of the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic United States on Friday 
and into the weekend. Additional information on this system, 
including storm and gale warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts and products from your local National Weather Service 
office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands is 
producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. 
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form this weekend or early next week while the system moves 
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern and central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 
KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Reinhart