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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 5 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located over the central tropical Atlantic about 900 miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have become a little 
better organized over the past several hours.  Environmental 
conditions are conducive for further development, and a tropical 
depression or tropical storm is expected to form over the next day 
or so while the low moves toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph 
across the central tropical Atlantic.  Additional strengthening, 
possibly to a hurricane, is likely later this week while the system 
moves over western portions of the tropical Atlantic, near or to the 
northeast of the northern Leeward Islands.  For additional 
information on this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A strong tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of West 
Africa today.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression 
could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic during the middle 
to latter part of the week while the system moves to the west or 
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  This system is expected to move 
across the Cabo Verde Islands Wednesday night and Thursday, and 
interests there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Northeastern Atlantic (ex-Franklin):
Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin is located several hundred miles 
north of the Azores, and is forecast to move quickly southeastward 
towards warmer waters east of the Azores.  This system could acquire 
some subtropical or tropical characteristics late this week or this 
weekend while it moves erratically between the Azores and Portugal. 
For additional information on this system, including gale warnings, 
see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header 
FQNT50 LFPW and online at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

Forecaster Pasch