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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Sep 4 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on 
Post-Tropical Cyclone Katia, located over the eastern subtropical 
Atlantic.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL95):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located over the central tropical Atlantic about 800 miles 
west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have changed little in 
organization through the day.  However, environmental conditions 
are conducive for further development, and a tropical depression or 
tropical storm is expected to form over the next day or so while the 
low moves toward the west-northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the 
central tropical Atlantic.  Additional strengthening, possibly to a 
hurricane, is likely later this week while the system moves over 
western portions of the tropical Atlantic, near or to the northeast 
of the northern Leeward Islands.  For additional information on 
this system, including gale warnings, see High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A strong tropical wave is forecast to move off the coast of West 
Africa on Tuesday.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for 
development once the wave moves offshore, and a tropical depression 
could form over the far eastern tropical Atlantic during the middle 
to latter part of the week while the system moves to the west or 
west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.  This system is expected to move 
across the Cabo Verde Islands Wednesday night and Thursday, and 
interests there should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

3. Northeastern Atlantic (ex-Franklin):
Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin is located several hundred miles 
north of the Azores and is forecast to move quickly southeastward 
towards warmer waters east of the Azores.  This system could acquire 
some subtropical or tropical characteristics late this week or this 
weekend while it moves erratically between the Azores and Portugal. 
For additional information on this system, including gale warnings, 
see High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Franklin can be 
found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header 
FQNT50 LFPW and online at
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/
metarea2

Forecaster Berg