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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Franklin, located a few hundred miles northeast of Bermuda, on 
Tropical Storm Idalia, located off the coast of North Carolina, and 
on Tropical Storm Jose, located several hundred miles east of 
Bermuda.

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located just west of the Cabo Verde Islands 
continues to produce showers and thunderstorms with some signs of 
organization. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further 
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form during the next day or two while the system moves northwestward 
at 10 to 15 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic. Interests in 
the Cabo Verde Islands should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Central Subtropical Atlantic (Remnants of Gert):
A small area of low pressure located several hundred miles 
north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands is producing small 
bursts of showers and thunderstorms to the south of its center. This 
system has a short window for further development during the next 
day or so while it drifts northeastward or eastward, before 
upper-level winds become increasingly unfavorable by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could develop over the eastern tropical 
Atlantic early next week in association with a tropical wave. 
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of 
this system through the middle part of next week while it moves 
westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central portions 
of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart