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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Six, located several hundred miles east of the northern 
Leeward Islands.

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred 
miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Earlier satellite 
wind data indicated the system was producing winds up to 40 mph on 
its north side. In addition, first light visible satellite suggests 
the center may be becoming better defined. If these current trends 
continue, a short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is 
likely to form later today or tonight while it moves 
west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the central tropical 
Atlantic. By Monday, upper-level winds are forecast to strengthen 
over the system, and further development is not expected. For 
additional information on this system, including gale warnings, see 
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

2. Eastern Caribbean (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with an area of low pressure over the far eastern 
Caribbean Sea. Additional development of this system is expected, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple 
of days as it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph 
over the eastern and central Caribbean, before turning northward and 
moving into the southwestern Atlantic Ocean by midweek. Regardless 
of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the 
Lesser Antilles during the next couple of days. Interests in the 
eastern and central Caribbean should monitor the progress of this 
system. A NOAA Hurricane Reconnaissance mission is scheduled to 
investigate the system later today. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located in the far eastern Gulf of 
Mexico is expected to lead to the formation of a broad area of low 
pressure early this week. Some slow development of this system could 
occur thereafter as it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph, and a 
tropical depression could form as it approaches the western Gulf of 
Mexico coastline by Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far 
eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week 
while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO 
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO 
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi