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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Depression Six, located several hundred miles east of the northern 
Leeward Islands. 

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with a broad area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. However, 
recent satellite wind data indicate the surface circulation is 
elongated and lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions 
still appear generally favorable for development, and a short-lived 
tropical depression is likely to form later today or tonight while 
it moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph over the central 
tropical Atlantic. By Monday, upper-level winds are forecast to 
strengthen over the system, and further development is not expected. 
For additional information on this system, including gale warnings, 
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Eastern Caribbean (AL90):
An area of low pressure over the far eastern Caribbean Sea is 
producing showers and thunderstorms with some signs of organization. 
Additional development of this system is expected, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the early or middle part of this 
week. The system is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern and central Caribbean during the 
next couple of days, then turn northward and move over the 
southwestern Atlantic Ocean by midweek. Regardless of development, 
heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Lesser Antilles 
during the next couple of days. Interests in the eastern and central 
Caribbean should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located over the Straits of Florida and 
the southern Florida peninsula will move into the Gulf of Mexico 
later today, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form 
early this week. Some slow development of this system could occur 
thereafter as it moves westward at about 15 to 20 mph, and a 
tropical depression could form as it approaches the western Gulf of 
Mexico coastline by Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

4. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far 
eastern tropical Atlantic is associated with a tropical wave. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of 
this system, and a tropical depression could form later this week 
while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern tropical 
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO 
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO 
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be 
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and 
online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Reinhart