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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed 
Tropical Depression Six, located roughly 1300 miles east of the 
northern Leeward Islands. 

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues to become better 
organized in association with a broad area of low pressure located 
several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental 
conditions appear generally favorable for further development, and 
a short-lived tropical depression is likely to form within the 
next day or so while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 
about 10 mph across the eastern tropical Atlantic.  By early next 
week, upper-level winds over the system are forecast to increase, 
and further development is not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Near the Windward Islands (AL90):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with an 
area of low pressure near the Windward Islands. Some additional 
development of this system is likely and a tropical depression could 
form by early next week while this system moves westward to 
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern and central 
Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible 
over portions of the Windward Islands during the next couple of 
days.  Interests in the eastern and central Caribbean should monitor 
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located over the Florida peninsula is 
expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early next week, where a 
broad area of low pressure is expected to form. Some slow 
development of this system is possible thereafter, and a tropical 
depression could form as it moves westward and approaches the 
western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

4. Near the coast of Africa:
A tropical wave located near the western coast of Africa is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  
Some slow development is possible while it moves generally 
west-northwestward across the tropical eastern Atlantic during the 
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO 
header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Six are issued under WMO 
header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

Forecaster Kelly/Brown