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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL98):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association with a 
broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles west of the 
Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally 
favorable for further development of this system, and a short-lived 
tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves 
west-northwestward or northwestward at about 10 mph across the 
eastern tropical Atlantic. By early next week, upper-level winds 
over the system are forecast to increase, and further development is 
not expected.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL99):
An area of low pressure located roughly halfway between the Cabo 
Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is producing disorganized 
showers and thunderstorms to the east of its center. Environmental 
conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for 
further development of this system during the next day or two while 
it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the central 
tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

3. East-Southeast of the Lesser Antilles (AL90):
A tropical wave located just east of the Windward Islands is 
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual 
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression 
could form during the early and middle parts of next week while it 
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, across the 
Lesser Antilles and over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

4. Western Gulf of Mexico:
An area of disturbed weather located near the northwestern and 
central Bahamas is expected to move into the Gulf of Mexico by early 
next week, where a broad area of low pressure is expected to form. 
Some slow development of this system is possible thereafter, and a 
tropical depression could form as it moves westward and approaches 
the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Forecaster Bucci