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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Aug 16 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the central 
tropical Atlantic are associated with an elongated trough of low 
pressure centered about 750 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde 
Islands.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form 
during the next several days while moving toward the west or 
west-northwest at about 10 mph across the central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave moving off the west coast of Africa is producing a 
large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  This system 
is forecast to move toward the west-northwest at about 15 mph, with 
an area of low pressure expected to form in a day or so near or 
just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Further development of 
the low is possible, and a tropical depression could form over the 
weekend before environmental conditions become unfavorable early 
next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

3. Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western 
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week.  Some slow development 
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves westward and 
approaches the western Gulf of Mexico coastline by the middle of 
next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Bucci