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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 31 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL96):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located about 650 miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands 
have become less organized since last night.  However, the system is 
producing a small area of gale-force winds well to the east of the 
center.  Environmental conditions still appear somewhat conducive 
for a tropical depression or tropical storm to develop during the 
next couple of days while the system moves northwestward and then 
northward at 10 to 15 mph over the central subtropical Atlantic.  
Additional information on this system, including gale warnings, can 
be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather 
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Western Atlantic (AL97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity continues in association a 
gale-force low pressure system located over the western Atlantic 
several hundred miles south of Nova Scotia.  However, recent 
satellite data indicate that the low is attached to frontal 
boundaries, and it is forecast to move quickly toward the 
east-northeast at 30 to 35 mph, reaching colder waters by tonight.  
As a result, the likelihood of this system becoming a tropical 
storm is diminishing.  Additional information on the low, including 
gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the 
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

For more information about marine hazards associated with AL96 
and AL97, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National 
Weather Service found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header 
FZNT01 KWBC, and online at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php

Forecaster Berg