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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT SAT JUN 18 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A large low pressure system located over the eastern Bay of Campeche
about 60 miles north-northeast of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico, is
producing widespread cloudiness and disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over much of the Yucatan peninsula and adjacent waters
of the Bay of Campeche, southern Gulf of Mexico, and northwestern
Caribbean Sea. The low has been nearly stationary during the past
several hours, but it is forecast to move west-northwestward to
westward at around 10 mph across the Bay of Campeche the next couple
of days before moving inland over eastern Mexico. Satellite-derived
winds and surface observations indicate that the low has developed a
well-defined center of circulation.  Although upper-level winds are
only marginally conducive, gradual development of this system is
expected and a tropical depression could form during the next day or
so. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the low Sunday afternoon, if necessary.  For additional
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service are
available under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Stewart




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