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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN AUG 23 2015

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Danny, located a couple of hundred miles east of the Leeward
Islands.

1. A low pressure area located several hundred miles south of Nova
Scotia is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. While
the circulation of this system has become somewhat better defined
since yesterday, subtropical or tropical cyclone development is
unlikely because it is expected to merge with a frontal system
while it moves generally northward during the next day or so.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...near 0 percent

2. Satellite data indicate that the circulation associated with a low
pressure system located about 800 miles west of the Cape Verde
Islands has become better defined since yesterday.  Shower and
thunderstorm activity associated with this low has also become
better organized. Environmental are conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form before mid-
week while the wave moves quickly westward at around 20 mph. By
late this week, atmospheric conditions are expected to become less
favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent

3. Another tropical wave moving off of the west coast of Africa is
accompanied by disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental
conditions are expected to be only marginally favorable for
development while this disturbance moves generally westward over
the tropical Atlantic Ocean at 15 to 20 mph this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

Forecaster Kimberlain




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