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Tropical Weather Outlook Text

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU SEP 11 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
centered about 750 miles west of the Cape Verde Islands continues
to show signs of organization.  Conditions are expected to become
more favorable for development, and a tropical depression could form
during the next day or two while the low moves toward the west-
northwest and northwest at about 15 mph over the open Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. Shower activity associated with a weak low pressure area near the
northwestern Bahamas has changed little in organization over the
past several hours.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become
unfavorable for significant development while the low moves slowly
westward toward southern Florida.  If necessary, however, an Air
Force plane will investigate the system later today.  Regardless of
development, this low will bring locally heavy rains to portions of
southern Florida and the Florida Keys during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Pasch




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