Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

NHC Graphical Outlook Archive


« Earliest Available         ‹ Earlier         Later ›         Latest Available »
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information
Graphical TWO atl Click for Eastern Pacific

GIS data:  .shp
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI SEP 6 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW
PRESSURE AREA NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO HAS SLOWED ITS FORWARD MOVEMENT
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS.  THIS HAS ALLOWED IT TO STAY OVER WATER
AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION ADVISORY
WILL BE ISSUED IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.  THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
TO BRING 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 8 INCHES...IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF VERACRUZ AND
TAMAULIPAS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE ARE ALSO EXPECTED IN A FEW SQUALLS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

2. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED ABOUT 500 MILES SOUTH OF
BERMUDA.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...IF
ANY...IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR DUE TO UNFAVORABLE
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  AFTER 48 HOURS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND NO DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.   

3. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE...IS
CENTERED JUST NORTH OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  WHILE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING...
ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW DUE TO
UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS
AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.  SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE IN A FEW DAYS WHEN THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTHWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.  AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM.

4. A BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED
ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING
DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY.  DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM APPEARS
UNLIKELY AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...NEAR
0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR WEST AT ABOUT 10 MPH.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OVER THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IN A DAY OR TWO...AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...BUT A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

FORECASTER BEVEN


List of all Atlantic Outlooks
List of all East Pacific Outlooks


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 16-Jul-2012 19:58:38 UTC