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Tropical Depression Twenty-E Discussion Number   4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP202023
100 AM PST Fri Nov 24 2023
 
Another round of deep convection has formed within the southeastern 
quadrant of the circulation, and the high-level cirrus has expanded 
westward, mostly obscuring the depression's center.  With final-T 
numbers of 2.0 from both TAFB and SAB, the initial intensity 
remains 30 kt.

The depression has turned northwestward, skirting along the 
southwestern periphery of a mid-level anticyclone, with an initial 
motion of 315/7 kt.  A mid-level trough is expected to develop near 
the depression during the next couple of days, causing the cyclone 
to slow down and turn northward or north-northeastward.  The new 
NHC track forecast is a blend of the previous forecast with the 
latest TVCE consensus, requiring another slight westward shift to 
the left.

With the aforementioned trough digging near the depression, the 20 
kt of west-northwesterly shear current affecting the system is 
forecast increase to about 50 kt of westerly shear in about 48 
hours.  As a result, little change in intensity is expected during 
the next couple of days, but that doesn't rule out a brief period 
as a tropical storm if the system can maintain convection near the 
center.  The increasing shear is likely, however, to ultimately 
cause the cyclone to degenerate into a remnant low by 60 hours and 
dissipate in about 4 days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  24/0900Z 13.0N 122.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1800Z 13.7N 123.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0600Z 14.7N 123.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  25/1800Z 15.3N 123.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  26/0600Z 15.7N 123.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 60H  26/1800Z 16.1N 123.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0600Z 16.7N 124.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Berg
 
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