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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Pilar Advisory Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
400 PM CDT Tue Oct 31 2023
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.4N 89.5W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM S OF SAN SALVADOR EL SALVADOR
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM WSW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Entire coast of El Salvador
* Pacific coast of Honduras including the Gulf of Fonseca
* Honduras/Nicaragua border southward to Puerto Sandino
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua and in
southern Guatemala should monitor the progress of this system.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Pilar was 
located near latitude 11.4 North, longitude 89.5 West. Pilar is 
moving toward the east-northeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). Pilar is 
forecast to move little tonight into early Wednesday. On the 
forecast track, Pilar could move a little closer to the coast of El 
Salvador or Nicaragua tonight through early Wednesday, though the 
core of the system is expected to remain offshore. The storm is 
forecast to begin moving west-southwestward away from land by 
Thursday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. 
Some slight strengthening is possible over the next day or so before 
gradual weakening likely begins on Thursday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Pilar can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml
 
RAINFALL:  Pilar is expected to produce storm total rainfall of 5
to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, over portions of
Central America from southern El Salvador, across southern Honduras,
western Nicaragua into northern Costa Rica through Wednesday.  This
rainfall will produce flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides
in areas of higher terrain.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Pilar are expected to continue affecting
the Pacific coast of Central America during the next few days. These
swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical
Storm Watch area during the next day or so.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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