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TROPICAL STORM PILAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192023
2100 UTC WED NOV 01 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  91.7W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  50SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  45SE  45SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  91.7W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.4N  91.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 12.0N  93.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.1N  96.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 10.2N  99.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z  9.5N 102.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z  9.3N 105.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z  9.4N 107.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 10.0N 111.7W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 10.9N 115.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N  91.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BUCCI
 
 
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