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Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  30
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
900 PM MDT Sat Nov 04 2023
 
Pilar has become a little better organized this evening.  There has 
been an overall increase in banding and a couple of microwave 
passes around 0000 UTC revealed a little better inner core 
structure.  Dvorak satellite estimates from TAFB and SAB were a 
unanimous T3.0 (45 kt), and objective estimates from UW/CIMMS range 
from 41 to 53 kt.  Using a blend of these estimates, the initial 
wind speed has been increased to 45 kt for this advisory. 

Low vertical wind shear and warm SSTs along the path of Pilar could 
allow for some additional strengthening overnight.  Most of the 
intensity guidance indeed calls for some modest strengthening, and 
the official forecast follow suit. By late Sunday, however, 
increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear is likely to put an 
end to any further intensification.  A more significant increase in 
southwesterly shear is predicted Sunday night and Monday, and 
steady weakening is anticipated during that time.  The small 
tropical cyclone is likely to succumb to these unfavorable 
conditions, and Pilar is forecast to become a remnant low in 2-3 
days, and dissipate shortly thereafter. 

Pilar is still moving westward, but at a slightly slower forward 
speed of 12 kt.  A turn to the west-northwest and then northwest 
with a further reduction in forward speed is expected during the 
next 24-36 hours as a mid-level ridge to the north of Pilar weakens. 
There are still some differences in the dynamical guidance on how 
vertically deep Pilar will remain, which affects how much latitude 
the storm gains.  Since the NHC forecast calls for weakening to 
commence by late tomorrow, the NHC track forecast favors the 
southern side of the guidance.  The official forecast is in best 
agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus aid, which is a little 
south of the simple, multi-model consensus track. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  05/0300Z 10.5N 111.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  05/1200Z 10.8N 113.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  06/0000Z 11.5N 114.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  06/1200Z 12.3N 115.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  07/0000Z 13.2N 116.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  07/1200Z 14.2N 117.9W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/0000Z 15.3N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown
 
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