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Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
900 PM MDT Fri Nov 03 2023
 
Pilar is not much to look at tonight. The deep convective activity 
near the center has been on a downward swing, though there are a few 
convective clusters starting to redevelop close to the estimated 
low-level center. An earlier AMSR2 microwave pass on the 37-GHz 
channel also suggested that, compared to yesterday, the low-level 
banding features have become more diffuse. Satellite intensity 
estimates continue to range from 30 to 40 kt, and given the earlier 
scatterometer data, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt, though 
this may be generous. 

Small Pilar seems to be struggling in its current environment, which 
is honestly not all that unfavorable, with light to moderate 
westerly vertical wind shear, and plenty warm sea-surface 
temperatures. However, the proximity of nearby dry air surrounding 
the storm has continued to periodically snuff out its convection, 
preventing much organization. Thus, the forecast continues to show 
the storm maintaining its current intensity, assuming dry air will 
continue to keep the small cyclone in check. After 36 h, shear 
begins to increase further, and weakening after that point is 
forecasted. The latest NHC intensity forecast show Pilar weakening 
into a remnant low by 72 h with dissipation by 120 h, but both of 
these statuses could occur sooner than forecast, as suggested by the 
ECMWF model. 

Pilar continues to move south of due west, with an initial motion of 
260/15 kt. A well-established mid-level ridge located north of the 
storm should continue to steer the tropical cyclone westward for the 
next few days, though with gradual slowing of its forward motion as 
the ridge begins to become eroded by a deep-layer trough located 
near the Baja California Peninsula. This should ultimately result in 
a bit more poleward motion in Pilar into early next week. Once 
again, there is a large amount of track spread, mostly related to 
how vertically deep Pilar remains in the model guidance. The GFS 
continues to be steadfast in maintaining Pilar as a vertically deep 
cyclone, and turns the system more northwestward as the trough 
weakness develops. The ECWMF (and the vast majority of its 
ensembles) ultimately decouple its mid-level circulation from the 
low-level one, resulting in a faster and more westward track. The 
NHC track forecast favors the latter scenario, which also is closer 
to the TVCN and HCCA consensus aids. This forecast is just a touch 
further south and west compared to the prior one.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0300Z  9.9N 106.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/1200Z  9.7N 108.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  05/0000Z  9.9N 111.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/1200Z 10.5N 113.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  06/0000Z 11.1N 114.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 60H  06/1200Z 11.8N 116.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  07/0000Z 12.4N 117.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  08/0000Z 14.0N 119.8W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  09/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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