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Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
400 PM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023
 
Deep convection associated with Pilar continues to pulse, and it
still lacks banding features.  The latest satellite intensity
estimates range from 30 to 40 kt, and a recent ASCAT pass showed
peak winds in the 35-40 kt range.  Based on all of these data, the
initial intensity is nudged downward to 40 kt.  Pilar remains a
very compact storm and is only producing a small area of
tropical-storm-force winds north of the center.
 
The storm is moving quickly westward at about 17 kt.  Mid-level 
ridging to the north of the storm should keep Pilar on a westward 
path during the next couple of days.  After that time, a turn to the 
west-northwest or northwest is predicted as the ridge breaks down.  
There is quite a bit of spread in the models with the GFS on the far 
right side of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF on the far left 
side.  The NHC track forecast leans closer to the left side of the 
guidance since Pilar is expected to be a weakening system and will 
more likely move in the low-level flow.
 
Pilar will likely fluctuate in strength during the next couple of
days while it remains in marginal environmental conditions.  After
that time, however, an increase in southerly vertical wind shear
and intrusions of dry air should cause a weakening trend.  Pilar is
now forecast to degenerate to a remnant low in 3 to 4 days.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/2100Z 10.1N 104.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  04/0600Z  9.9N 106.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  04/1800Z 10.0N 109.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  05/0600Z 10.2N 112.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  05/1800Z 10.8N 113.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 60H  06/0600Z 11.4N 115.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  06/1800Z 12.1N 116.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  07/1800Z 13.8N 119.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  08/1800Z 15.5N 121.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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