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Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  24
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
1000 AM CDT Fri Nov 03 2023
 
Deep convection has re-developed over Pilar this morning. Multiple 
microwave images depict that the low-level center is poorly 
organized.  This disruption in organization is likely due to 
westerly shear. The pulsing nature of the convective structure of 
Pilar continues to impact satellite intensity estimates, with those 
estimates slightly decreased for this cycle. The initial intensity 
leans toward the Dvorak CI-numbers, which was a 3.0 from TAFB. With 
convection bursting once again and the Dvorak CI values, this 
supports keeping the initial intensity steady at 45 kt.
 
Pilar is moving swiftly west-southwestward (255/18 kt), steered by a 
mid-level ridge to the north and northwest of the system.  A 
mid-level trough is forecast to approach the Baja California 
peninsula this weekend, which will cause the ridge to weaken, and 
Pilar should gradually slow down and turn to the west and 
west-northwest through early next week. The track guidance remains 
in fairly good agreement, with the main difference being the forward 
speed of Pilar. The NHC forecast is slightly faster than the 
previous, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids.
 
The convective structure of Pilar continues to fluctuate, with a
pulsing convective burst from time-to-time. Given the small size of 
Pilar, intensity fluctuations are possible throughout the forecast 
period as the system will be more susceptible within varying 
environmental conditions. The intensity forecast shows very little 
change in the intensity through the weekend. In about 3 days, as 
Pilar moves northwestward, the system is expected to encounter 
strong southwesterly shear and will weaken. Global models are in 
fairly good agreement that Pilar will become a remnant low by the 
end of the period. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  03/1500Z 10.2N 103.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z  9.9N 105.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z  9.8N 108.6W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 10.0N 111.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  05/1200Z 10.4N 113.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  06/0000Z 11.1N 115.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  06/1200Z 11.8N 116.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  07/1200Z 13.5N 118.5W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  08/1200Z 14.9N 121.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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