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Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number  20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
1000 AM CDT Thu Nov 02 2023
 
Pilar continues to have a burst of convection near the low-level 
center this morning. There have been a few microwave passes this 
morning, which depict the overall pulsing nature of the convective 
structure of Pilar. The satellite intensity estimates have decreased 
slightly this cycle. Given the nature of the pulsing convective 
pattern, the initial intensity leans toward the Dvorak CI-numbers, 
which were 3.0 and 2.5 from TAFB and SAB, respectively.  This 
supports keeping the initial intensity steady at 45 kt, but this 
could be a little generous.
 
Pilar continues to accelerate westward this morning at an estimated 
motion of 260/13 kt. A strengthening mid-level ridge is building to 
the north and northeast of Pilar, which will steer the system 
west-southwestward the next few days. A shortwave trough is forecast 
to move in from the northwest and weaken the mid-level ridge late 
this weekend. This will result in Pilar slowing down and turning 
west to west-northwest early next week. The model guidance is 
in fairly good agreement with this scenario, with the main 
difference among the models being along-track with the forward 
speed of Pilar. The NHC forecast is slightly faster than the 
previous, and lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids.
 
The near term intensity forecast is a little tricky given the 
pulsing convective nature of Pilar and the interaction with strong 
low-level northerly winds associated with an ongoing Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event. The gap wind flow could introduce some 
drier air into Pilar's circulation, which may briefly disrupt its 
convective organization. Later this weekend, the system is forecast 
to move over warm sea surface temperatures with weak to moderate 
vertical wind shear. There is some spread in the intensity guidance 
between 36-72h with some of the hurricane regional models showing 
strengthening, while some of the global models show little change in 
intensity. Given the favorable parameters and the guidance trends, 
the NHC intensity forecast is slightly higher than the previous at 
these time ranges, but still below the HWRF, HAFS-A and HCCA 
corrected consensus. Towards the end of the forecast period, Pilar 
will encounter a less favorable environment with increasing 
southwesterly shear and drier air. Given the small size of Pilar, 
intensity fluctuations are possible throughout the forecast period. 

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/1500Z 11.9N  95.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0000Z 11.2N  97.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 24H  03/1200Z 10.5N 100.9W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  04/0000Z 10.1N 104.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  04/1200Z 10.2N 106.8W   45 KT  50 MPH
 60H  05/0000Z 10.5N 109.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  05/1200Z 10.9N 111.3W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  06/1200Z 11.9N 114.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  07/1200Z 13.1N 117.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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