ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
Tropical Storm Pilar Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
1000 AM CDT Mon Oct 30 2023

Pilar appears to have intensified this morning.  Satellite imagery 
indicate that very deep convection is located to the northwest of 
the center, with more organization in low-level banding features 
noted in recent microwave passes.  The initial wind speed is set to 
45 kt, which matches the recent TAFB satellite classification and is 
close to the UW-CIMSS satellite consensus value.  An Air Force 
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to be in the system 
this afternoon for a more precise look at the storm.

The storm continues moving slowly to the east-northeast, and most 
models continue this motion for the next day or so.  Thereafter, 
nearly all of the models stall Pilar near the coast of Central 
America by Tuesday night, though they still keep the core of the 
storm offshore.  On Wednesday, Pilar will likely turn west- 
southwestward away from land as a mid-level ridge builds to the 
north of the system, and most of the guidance shows the storm moving 
very close to or just north of its track on approach to Central 
America.  Only small changes were made to the previous NHC 
forecast, generally near or a bit north of the last track 
prediction.

Pilar has a day or two to intensify in moderate shear conditions 
within a very warm and moist environment.  Most of the guidance 
respond to this forcing by showing Pilar near hurricane strength, 
and the official forecast continues the same peak as the last 
advisory.  In 36 to 48 hours, an increase in southeasterly shear 
could cause Pilar to level off in intensity and eventually weaken, 
along with any dry air intrusions from a gap wind event or 
storm-induced upwelling.  The long-range intensity guidance is a bit 
higher than the last cycle, so the official forecast is adjusted 
upward at that time frame.

 
Key Messages:
 
1. Heavy rains from Pilar will produce flash and urban flooding,
along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain, near the Pacific 
coast of Central America from El Salvador southward to Costa Rica 
through Wednesday.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible beginning early Tuesday 
along portions of the Pacific coast of El Salvador, Honduras, and 
Nicaragua, where a Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect. Interests 
elsewhere along the Pacific coast of Guatemala, and Nicaragua should 
monitor the progress of this system as additional watches or 
warnings could be needed later today.
 
3. Swells generated by Pilar will continue to affect the Pacific 
coast of Central America during the next few days.  These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/1500Z 11.1N  91.2W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  31/0000Z 11.3N  90.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  31/1200Z 11.5N  89.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  01/0000Z 12.0N  89.0W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  01/1200Z 12.1N  89.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  02/0000Z 11.7N  90.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  02/1200Z 11.2N  92.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 96H  03/1200Z 10.0N  97.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  04/1200Z  9.3N 103.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Blake
 
NNNN