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Tropical Depression Nineteen-E Discussion Number   3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192023
400 AM CDT Sun Oct 29 2023
 
The depression is not well organized this morning.  The circulation
appears elongated east-west and deep convection is patchy and
lacking banding features.  The Dvorak T-numbers are lower than they
were yesterday, but still generally support an initial intensity of
30 kt.

The system has been wobbling around since it developed yesterday, 
but over the past 6 to 12 hours it has been generally moving slowly 
north-northwestward,  The models agree that the depression should 
begin to move northeastward at a slow pace later today.  The 
northeastward motion should continue through Tuesday, taking the 
system very near the coasts of El Salvador and Guatemala.  After 
that time, a strong cold front is expected to move across Mexico and 
the Gulf of Mexico, and that should cause the cyclone to reverse its 
course and head southwestward away from land.  The NHC track 
forecast is a little slower than the previous one and roughly 
between the HCCA and TVCE consensus aids.  It should be noted that 
confidence in the details of the track forecast is low since the 
forward speed of the cyclone and timing of the cold front will make 
the difference in whether or not the system moves inland over 
Central America or remains offshore. 

Given the broad nature of the system currently, only slow 
strengthening seems likely today.  However, more steady 
intensification is possible tonight through Tuesday while the 
system remains over very warm SSTs and in favorable atmospheric 
conditions.  The cyclone will likely be near hurricane 
strength when it is close to the coast of Guatemala and El 
Salvador on Tuesday.  After that, strong vertical wind shear, 
possible land interaction, and intrusions of dry air and stable air 
should end the opportunity for strengthening and promote a 
weakening trend.  Only small changes were made to the previous NHC 
intensity forecast, and this one lies near the middle of the 
guidance envelope.


Key Messages:

1. Heavy rains from the tropical depression will produce flash and 
urban flooding, along with mudslides in areas of higher terrain 
along the Pacific coast of Central America, including El Salvador, 
through Wednesday.

2. The depression is expected to strengthen as it approaches 
Guatemala and El Salvador, and tropical storm or hurricane watches 
could be required for portions of those areas later today.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  29/0900Z 11.0N  93.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 11.3N  93.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 11.6N  92.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 11.9N  91.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 12.4N  91.1W   60 KT  70 MPH
 60H  31/1800Z 12.7N  90.2W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 12.3N  90.3W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 11.0N  92.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  03/0600Z  9.3N  96.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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