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BULLETIN
Hurricane Norma Advisory Number  14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172023
900 PM MDT Fri Oct 20 2023
 
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS, FLOODING RAINFALL, AND A DANGEROUS STORM
SURGE EXPECTED IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 109.9W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
the west coast of mainland Mexico from Bahia Tempehuaya to Mazatlan.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Baja California Sur from Todos Santos to Los Barriles
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* North of Los Barriles to San Evaristo
* North of Todos Santos to Santa Fe
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Las Islas Marias
* Topolobampo to Mazatlan
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24
to 36 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be
rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur and along the west coast
of mainland Mexico should monitor the progress of Norma. Additional
watches or warnings could be required later today and tonight.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Norma was located
near latitude 20.8 North, longitude 109.9 West. Norma is moving
toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A turn toward the
north is expected on Saturday, followed by a slower northeastward
motion Saturday night through Monday. On the forecast track, Norma
is expected to move over the southern portion of Baja California Sur
within the hurricane warning area on Saturday. Norma is forecast to
move toward the west coast of Mexico on Sunday and Sunday night and
move inland within the tropical storm watch area on Monday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher
gusts. Norma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Some gradual weakening is expected during the
next day or so, but Norma is expected to be a hurricane when it
moves near or over the southern portion of Baja California Sur.
Weakening is forecast to continue through early next week.
 
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb (28.20 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Norma can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP2 and WMO header WTPZ42 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP2.shtml
 
WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane 
warning area in Baja California Sur on Saturday, with tropical storm 
conditions imminent. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the 
tropical storm warning areas in Baja California Sur on early 
Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in Las Islas Marias 
through tonight, and in the watch area along the west coast of 
Mexico by Sunday.
 
RAINFALL:  Norma is likely to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10
inches with local maxima of 15 inches across the far southern
portion of Baja California Sur through Sunday and across portions
of Sinaloa through Monday.  These rains will likely produce flash
and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of
higher terrain.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge is likely to produce coastal
flooding in areas of onshore winds within the hurricane warning
area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves.
 
SURF:  Swells generated by Norma are affecting portions of the coast
of southwestern and west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur.
These swells will spread northward along the coast of western Mexico
and the Baja California peninsula this weekend. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT.
Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Kelly
 
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