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HURRICANE NORMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP172023
2100 UTC WED OCT 18 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.0W AT 18/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE  90SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 108.0W AT 18/2100Z
AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 107.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.6N 108.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 110SE  60SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.7N 108.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  70SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.7N 108.7W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 19.6N 109.1W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  15SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 20.8N 109.7W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 22.1N 110.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW  80NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 22.7N 109.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z 24.0N 109.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 108.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER REINHART
 
 
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